SIBERUT AREA IDENTIFIED AS SITE OF NEXT MEGA QUAKE

Kerry Sieh has further clarified the indicators that lead to the high likelihood that Siberut will be the site of the next major seismic adjustment.

1. The last adjustment in the Siberut area was in 1797 and given events in the area have followed a 2 century cycle the area is now due or even overdue for the next.

2. Stress buildup studies all indicate that the stress is very high in this section of the subduction zone (see the map above)

3. The East coast of Siberut shows more subsidence/submergence than the other Mentawai islands and that is a good gauge of an area that is ready to be uplifted.

4. The progression of quakes has been moving South towards this area.

Kerry feels that the 1833 model is appropriate to consider as the most likely scale and type of event we can expect. A 4-5m tsunami is the most likely outcome after a 3 minute quake and extensive structural damage.

We have just concluded 2 days of meetings with Padang's Mayor discussing mitigation issues. A proposal is being prepared for the rehabilitation of an old hill top graveyard just South of the city. The proposal calls for the terracing of the area and the establishment of a botanical garden with grassed areas suited for tents between tree bands. Water supply will be reticulated and waste water management incorporated so that the area could support the surrounding populations after a large quake or in the worst case, after a tsunami.