Time Magazine's "LIVING ON A FAULT LINE"

JOHN STANMEYER—VII FOR TIME

HELPING HANDS: Geologist Sieh, center, explains tectonic plate movements to local residents

How frightened should we be?

http://www.time.com/time/asia/2005/disaster/story.html

Posted Monday, December 12, 2005; 20:00 HKT

The village of Maligi (name changed to avoid panic) on the west coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra seems idyllic—two dozen houses strung along a palm- and casuarina-covered strip of land, on one side the crashing waves of the Indian Ocean, on the other a rippling river mouth. When a rare group of visitors appears in the bright mid-morning sunlight, a dozen children chase after the car, laughing and waving.

"So many kids," American geologist Charles Rubin mutters gloomily as he waves back. "They don't have a chance."

"Nope," agrees fellow geologist Kerry Sieh, also waving and smiling. "They'd all be killed. There's just nowhere to run here. It's water on both sides."

"If they knew what was coming, they might be able to climb the coconut trees and survive," Rubin continues, "assuming the tsunami wasn't too high, say in the four-meter range. They need to build platforms on the trees and maybe cut steps in the tree trunks. They need information. You should give them one of your posters, Kerry."

Sieh nods. A professor of geology at the California Institute of Technology, he probably knows more than any person on the planet about how and why earthquakes and tsunamis happen so often, to such deadly effect, in this part of the world. Sieh and his colleagues on this field trip know how many lives have already been saved by posters and other efforts to educate those who live in a 2,000-km-long danger zone running from Aceh on the northern end of Sumatra to an island off its southern tip called Anak Krakatau, or Child of Krakatau. And they'd like to save some more.

For Sumatra is at risk. In the space of just three months at the beginning of 2005, two giant earthquakes rocked the region. A tremor on Dec. 26 produced a tsunami that knocked the earth off its axis and killed nearly a quarter of a million people. Then, on March 28, came another huge earthquake, this time farther south. There was no large tsunami generated by that temblor—dubbed the Nias quake after the island off the Sumatra coast that was worst affected—but over a thousand islanders died. After two such devastating blows, the inhabitants of Sumatra might be forgiven for assuming that nature will leave them in peace. It probably won't. Sieh, 54, and other scientists are warning that the island's troubles are not over. It isn't as though anybody needed a reminder, but the Oct. 8 earthquake that leveled large swathes of Pakistan and Northern India, leaving some 73,000 dead and millions homeless, could be a small taste of what is to come in Sumatra.

Even by Indonesia's chaotic standards, 2005 was a tough year. First came the gargantuan task of cleaning up and rebuilding after the tsunami—a job rendered more challenging by incompetence, bureaucracy and corruption. Then came the sudden eruption of bird flu that constantly threatened to explode into a major epidemic, and fresh bombings in Bali, which sent the country's tourism industry into a tailspin. But such problems would pale in the face of yet another monster earthquake striking Sumatra. That could kill hundreds of thousands of people. Such a quake, moreover, might trigger not just another tsunami but force a volcano to erupt, as happened with Mt. Talang, which was jolted out of an almost 40-year slumber by the Nias temblor.

How sure can we be that another catastrophe is coming? A combination of historical, geographical and geological research accumulated over some 12 years of painstaking field and laboratory work emphatically suggests that a section of the coast several hundred kilometers long, and populated by more than a million inhabitants, is threatened by the possibility of another shock. "There has never been a more certain geological prediction," Sieh declares. "There will be another gigantic earthquake and tsunami south of the equator off the west coast of Sumatra. It could be tomorrow or it could be in two decades from now, but there is no doubt that it will happen and that if the towns and villages along the coast aren't prepared, many, many people will die again."

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http://www.time.com/time/asia/2005/disaster/story2.html