Tsunamis & Tigers - We visited this village

Soon after we arrived at PATEK we choppered into these villages to assess needs. Later our volunteers rode open trucks into the area loaded with aid supplies. I rode a borrowed trail bike through the mountains near Rantau Sabon several times and often wondered about tigers.

Antara News Agency just published this story:

Sumatran Tigers Attacking Villagers' Cattle in Aceh

Banda Aceh, (ANTARA News) - Farmers in Ratau Sabon and SP-V Patek villages, Aceh Jaya district, are now restless and scared to go to their rice fields in recent days as Sumatran tigers are often leave their habitat for villagers` resettlement to attack their cattle.

At least three head of cattle have been caught by roaming tigers in Rantau Sabon village, villagers said there on Sunday (2/12).

The two villages are located some 12 from the Sampoiniet sub-disgtrict town, or about 130 km from the provincial capital of Banda Aceh. They are near to a palm oil plantation of PT Tiga mitra, which has been neglected for about five years.

Ridwan Adnan, one of the villagers, said that the locals often encountered the tigers when they went to their farm lands or went home from working.

"One of the tigers has a handicaped front leg. The bodies of the tigers are about two meters long," he said.

"We are scared and afraid of the repeat of an incident when three villagers were killed by tigers` attacks in 1992," he said.

He explained that in the 1992 incident villagers only found the victims` bones as other parts of their bodies were eaten up by the tigers.(*)

Quake Maps - New Perspective

These beautiful maps are shown courtesy of Cal Tech's On-line News pages
They show the location of significant faults and help explain concerns
that the next major seismic event in the area may well take place
East of the Mentawais rather than further West.

Prof Titov's map below shows the extraordinary impact of the tsunami

on the globes oceans and shorelines.

Declaration of Participants - Earthquake Challenge - Padang

http://www.time.com/time/asia/2005/disaster/map.html

Padang, West Sumatra, August 28, 2005 (recently published on the www)

For the past three days an international group of earthquake scientists and engineers has met to discuss earthquake hazards in western Sumatra. They reported results from their studies of the recent earthquakes and tsunamis in North Sumatra and Aceh provinces as well as their studies of the earthquake hazards of West Sumatra. Specific recommendations for reducing earthquake and tsunami risks are being sent to governmental and other organizations.

Summary of Scientific Knowledge
It is clear from several investigations that the giant earthquakes of December 2004 and March 2005 were caused by sudden rupture of the Sumatran megathrust fault beneath the islands of Nias and Simeulue and west of mainland Aceh. Rupture of the megathrust caused the islands and surrounding seafloor to jump upward and toward the Indian ocean as much as ten meters. During the earthquakes, the west coast of Aceh and North Sumatra sank one half to one meter. Uplift of the seafloor caused the tsunamis that struck the coasts after the earthquake.

Similar earthquakes struck the Mentawai islands and the coasts of West Sumatra and Bengkulu province in 1797 and 1833. Uplift of the seafloor around the Mentawai islands during those earthquakes caused large tsunamis that struck the mainland coast. Estimates of tsunami heights, from historical reports and scientific calculations, range as high as ten meters. Preliminary calculations suggest that hundreds of thousands of people would be severely affected by a future giant earthquake and tsunami in West Sumatra and Bengkulu provinces.

No one is able to predict scientifically to the nearest day, week or even year when a great West Sumatran earthquake and tsunami will strike next. But the scientific evidence strongly suggests it will occur within the lifetimes of most young people living along the coast today -- such earthquakes occur about every two centuries and the last occurred 172 and 208 years ago. It is very unlikely that any valid prediction will be more specific than this, but we are hopeful that in the long term there will be improvements in forecasting the timing and nature of future large earthquakes. Scientific measurements show that strains now accumulating will culminate in the occurrence of a giant West Sumatran earthquake.

During this future great earthquake, the Mentawai islands will behave like Nias and Simeulue did recently ...... they will rise suddenly a meter or more. The mainland coast of West Sumatra and Bengkulu province will experience the same sort of sinking as the west coasts of North Sumatra and Aceh ...... about one half to one meter. This will lead to substantial permanent coastal changes affecting infrastructure and, hence, peoples' livelihoods.

What has already been done to prepare?
Specialists from Japan, Indonesia and the US reported that preparation for eventual earthquake and tsunami disasters can greatly reduce loss of life and property. Among useful activities are the evacuation simulations that have begun in Padang and distribution of educational materials to communities at risk from earthquake shaking and tsunami inundation. Infrastructural changes such as the adoption of better construction practices could ensure that bridges are still usable after severe shaking and tsunami inundation. Efforts to establish a tsunami early-warning system for coastal Indian-ocean communities are also underway through BMG.

Several scientists reported plans for research that will help understand better the nature of the earthquake and tsunami hazard to coastal communities in West Sumatra and Bengkulu provinces. Marine geologic and geophysical studies will lead to a better understanding of the undersea faults that produce big earthquakes. Studies of small earthquakes in the coming months and years will help to pin down that section of the megathrust that is currently locked and that will eventually break to produce big earthquakes. Better topographic maps of the coastal regions and better bathymetric maps of the seafloor will enable more reliable estimates of areas that will be flooded by future tsunamis. Studies of the evidence left by ancient earthquakes and tsunamis will also help in this regard. Such estimates will aid in long-term urban planning aimed at reducing loss of life, property and productivity.

Recommendations to Indonesian research institutions
It is imperative that Indonesian governmental agencies support the continuation and expansion of earthquake and tsunami research efforts. Moreover, we support the ongoing efforts of LIPI, BPPT, BMG, BRKP-DKP, ESDM, Bakosurtanal, ITB and other Indonesian universities to attract substantially greater funding from foreign sources to facilitate research on this challenge. Successful research efforts with other nations will help greatly in understanding Sumatra’s earthquake and tsunami challenge. We are particularly supportive of collaborations with foreign scientists and governments that include provisions for sustainable improvements in the Indonesian scientific community and infrastructure.

Far more reliable maps of potential tsunami inundation are essential to the people of West Sumatra and Bengkulu provinces. Better bathymetric and topographic maps and a better understanding of likely tsunami sources will be fundamental input to construction of these maps. Indonesian research institutions can play a critical role in accomplishing this goal.

It is essential that the efforts already begun by LIPI to provide educational materials to the citizens of West Sumatra be continued and expanded significantly. These materials have not yet reached many people in coastal West Sumatra and Bengkulu provinces.

And many people who are still fearful of another great tsunami in North Sumatra and Aceh would benefit from better scientific information.

Currently, all eyes are focused on the potential for shaking and tsunami damage from future ruptures of the megathrust. Nonetheless, it is important that Sumatrans not neglect the risks posed by their other great fault, the Sumatran fault, which runs through the mountains, from Semanko Bay to Banda Aceh. For example, Banda Aceh will be more at risk from failure of that fault than from another earthquake and tsunami caused by the megathrust. In this particular case, what ground motions will likely result from rupture of this fault and what is the likelihood of their occurrence? Also, the specific location of the fault must be known so that new construction will not be placed across it.

Recommendations to governments and local organizations
The gradual, systematic reduction of potential loss of life, property and productivity should be a fundamental goal. This requires efforts in three areas: education, emergency response preparation and infrastructural change.

Education
Education is an extremely important avenue for the reduction of loss of life from tsunamis and earthquakes. For example, we commend ongoing local efforts in Padang and Air Bangis to establish procedures for the rapid and orderly evacuation of people from low-lying coastal regions after a great earthquake. We recommend that earthquake and tsunami education be incorporated into school curricula. These and other types of educational efforts must reach more of the at-risk populations and must be sustained over tens of years.

Emergency response preparedness
Access to regions affected by future large earthquakes and tsunamis will be critical to saving lives and property and re-establishing normalcy after the next great earthquake and tsunami. To ensure access, important bridges, roads, harbors and airports must be serviceable in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami. For example, efforts must be undertaken to ensure that bridges and their approach embankments will survive the earthquake and tsunami. Lessons learned from Aceh will be valuable in this regard. In the case of bridges, the use of shear keys to prevent lateral separation of bridges from their abutments. Roads farther inland are more likely to survive tsunami inundation.

The airport authorities should have plans to ensure the viability of their facilities after disasters. For example, equipment should be available to immediately clear tsunami debris from runways. For the most critical harbor facilities, tsunami countermeasures should be implemented.

Emergency response plans should be developed, reviewed and exercised periodically prior to disasters, at all levels of organization. These plans should include such things as the practicalities of initial entrance into a tsunami-inundation zone. The existence of a tsunami early-warning system is intended to serve to inform local governments when it is safe to return to low-lying areas.

Infrastructural changes
Survival from large tsunamis and earthquakes will require a complex approach. Viability of water-supply pipelines and sewage systems is critical in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami. Therefore the vulnerability of water pipes both above- and below-ground needs special attention. For example, water pipes running along bridges should be adequately attached to structural members of the bridge. Also, adequate burial of underground pipes will ensure their survival. Another activity should be the evaluation of the use of existing tall buildings as vertical evacuation structures.

The use of pile-deck structures in hard-to-evacuate districts, as in Japan, should also be considered. Special attention should be paid to the construction of new mosques as vertical evacuation structures.

Floatable structures such as storage tanks and barges may need to have drift-prevention measures.

Establishment of evacuation routes and plans have already begun in Padang and Air Bangis. These efforts should continue to completion.

Precise pre-disaster surveys of property boundaries would help in post-disaster recovery. Lessons learned from the recent great earthquakes and tsunamis regarding building codes and code enforcement should be implemented throughout the earthquake and tsunami prone regions of Sumatra. Additionally, since many buildings are built without formal compliance to building codes, better dissemination of earthquake- and tsunami-resistant building practices need to be promulgated.

Many lessons from the Aceh disaster will be useful here.

Fundraising via www.Fundable.org for Gomo Girls

For all those who would like to contribute to Enawati and Soterian's skin graft treatment in Hawaii, please visit the link below to pledge your support. The operations and months of treatment will be donated by Shriners of Hawaii. The funds raised are to cover passport & documentation costs, living costs & airfares for the two girls and their legal guardian, Pak Handi Laia.

https://www.fundable.org/groupactions/burngirls

To help co-ordinate our support efforts in the Gomo area, it is critical to be able to communicate with Dr Laia. The Dr's old sat phone has died and we are raising funds for a new one. Fortunately there is a low cost service available and it is possible to monitor e-mail via this system. This will save Dr Laia a 4-5 hour drive to Gunung Sitoli over very bad roads every time he needs to talk to us.

https://www.fundable.org/groupactions/niasphone

If the total funds are not raised within 25 days, your pledge will not be called on.

Mangroves "Saved Lives" & vital for sustainable fisheries

Tsunami: Mangroves 'saved lives'

By Mark Kinver BBC News science and nature reporter

Researchers say mangroves absorbed the impact of the tsunami

Healthy mangrove forests helped save lives in the Asia tsunami disaster, a new report has said.

The World Conservation Union (IUCN) compared the death toll from two villages in Sri Lanka that were hit by the devastating giant waves.

Two people died in the settlement with dense mangrove and scrub forest, while up to 6,000 people died in the village without similar vegetation.

Many forests in the past were felled to build prawn farms and tourist resorts.

The IUCN said it showed that healthy ecosystems acted as natural barriers.

"It saved a lot of lives as well as properties," said Vimukthi Weeratunga, the union's biodiversity coordinator in Sri Lanka.

"We have carried an out ecological assessment of the damage caused by the tsunami. In some areas the damage was very minimal, and mangrove vegetation had played a role."

Now everyone is keen to plant a lot of mangroves in the coastal areas Vimukthi Weeratunga, IUCN

Research has shown mangroves are able to absorb between 70-90% of the energy from a normal wave.

There is, however, no reliable data on how the trees mitigate the impact of a tsunami.

Many people living in coastal areas now want to see their communities benefit from the apparent protection offered by mangrove forests.

"People tend to respect these natural barriers even more, especially after the tsunami," Mr Weeratunga said.

"Now everyone is keen to plant a lot of mangroves in the coastal areas but unfortunately we cannot plant mangroves everywhere."

Slow recovery

Coral reefs were also in the direct path of the tsunami. Fears for these ecosystems were allayed after initial surveys found that there had not been widespread, long-term damage.

But they did not escape unharmed. Debris and silt from the shore was washed out to sea and covered the reefs.

One year on: Environmental impact of the tsunami disaster At-a-glance

Twelve months later, the IUCN has found that reefs which were in good shape before the waves struck are recovering much more quickly than degraded sites.

Lucy Emerton, head of the union's ecosystems and livelihoods group in Asia, explained why.

"Healthy coral reefs are much more robust in terms of recovering from either natural or man-made disasters," she told the BBC News website.

"Physically, you see a beautiful coral reef that is coming back to life rather than one that is still smothered in debris."

Many of the reefs in the Indian Ocean had been damaged from dynamite fishing, coral mining and bleaching.

The protection that healthy marine and coastal ecosystems provided during the disaster highlighted the need for effective environmental policies, Ms Emerton said.

Damaged coral has been slower to recover from the tsunami

"It was immediately obvious what an important role mangrove forests, wetlands and coral reefs played in mitigating the impact [of the tsunami]," she argued.

"It has led to a real step forward in looking at integrated coastal management systems."

She said strong conservation laws already existed but there had been questions about how effective they had been enforced.

One example of a local government flexing its conservation muscles is the recent declaration to establish two new turtle sanctuaries in southern Sri Lanka.

Elsewhere, four international conservation groups, led by Wetlands International, have launched a project called Green Coast.

Working alongside local governments and construction companies, the project hopes to rehabilitate the habitat in areas affected by the disaster.

Fishing fears

Both mangrove forests and coral reefs found in coastal areas provide vital protection and breeding grounds for fish - a key source of income and nutrition for people in the region.

A report published by the Malaysian-based WorldFish Center has warned that misplaced investment by donors could do more harm than good in the long term.

When the giant waves swept inland in December 2004, between 80-90% of the fishing fleet was destroyed.

This prompted a massive effort by the international community to replace lost vessels and gear.

International donors were quick to replace destroyed fishing boats

While welcoming the overwhelming response, the centre's director general, Stephen Hall, said it was important for donors to coordinate their efforts with the governments.

"There is a real danger that we are going to set these communities back on the downward spiral of unsustainable fish stocks," he said.

"The Indonesian government estimates that 10,500 boats were lost [in Aceh]. Of those, around 2,500 were repaired. Recent estimates put the number of boats that have been built or in the process of being built at around 10,800.

"So we now have 2,800 more boats than we started with."

Dr Hall said this created the potential to place even greater pressure on already overexploited stocks.

This view is shared by the IUCN's Vimukthi Weeratunga.

"Immediately after the tsunami, a lot of the NGOs and other well wishers were distributing boats.

"But we saw the distribution of too many boats and an increase in fishing."

Latest figures from the UN Farming and Agriculture Organization (FAO) show fish catches in Aceh for 2005 are down 41% for marine fishing and 26% for brackish water aquaculture.

Balancing act

The United Nations Environment Programme (Unep) published a report in November highlighting the challenges of meeting the demands of the mammoth relief effort without exacerbating the damage to the environment.

It warned that haphazard groundwater extraction, unsanitary disposal of waste, chaotic rebuilding of homes and unsustainable timber harvesting could result in more environmental damage, leading to an increase in poverty and greater vulnerability to future disasters.

A number of agencies, including the FAO and Unep, are working closely with the governments of nations affected by the disaster.

Help is being provided in a number of areas, such as offering technical assistance to overstretched environment ministries and coordinating the mobilisation of funding.

As attention begins to focus on the future, Vimukthi Weeratunga warns that there are no quick fixes when it comes to repairing the environmental damage.

"It will take five to seven years, at least, to get to the pre-tsunami stage - and that is a conservative estimate."

Time Magazine's "LIVING ON A FAULT LINE"

JOHN STANMEYER—VII FOR TIME

HELPING HANDS: Geologist Sieh, center, explains tectonic plate movements to local residents

How frightened should we be?

http://www.time.com/time/asia/2005/disaster/story.html

Posted Monday, December 12, 2005; 20:00 HKT

The village of Maligi (name changed to avoid panic) on the west coast of the Indonesian island of Sumatra seems idyllic—two dozen houses strung along a palm- and casuarina-covered strip of land, on one side the crashing waves of the Indian Ocean, on the other a rippling river mouth. When a rare group of visitors appears in the bright mid-morning sunlight, a dozen children chase after the car, laughing and waving.

"So many kids," American geologist Charles Rubin mutters gloomily as he waves back. "They don't have a chance."

"Nope," agrees fellow geologist Kerry Sieh, also waving and smiling. "They'd all be killed. There's just nowhere to run here. It's water on both sides."

"If they knew what was coming, they might be able to climb the coconut trees and survive," Rubin continues, "assuming the tsunami wasn't too high, say in the four-meter range. They need to build platforms on the trees and maybe cut steps in the tree trunks. They need information. You should give them one of your posters, Kerry."

Sieh nods. A professor of geology at the California Institute of Technology, he probably knows more than any person on the planet about how and why earthquakes and tsunamis happen so often, to such deadly effect, in this part of the world. Sieh and his colleagues on this field trip know how many lives have already been saved by posters and other efforts to educate those who live in a 2,000-km-long danger zone running from Aceh on the northern end of Sumatra to an island off its southern tip called Anak Krakatau, or Child of Krakatau. And they'd like to save some more.

For Sumatra is at risk. In the space of just three months at the beginning of 2005, two giant earthquakes rocked the region. A tremor on Dec. 26 produced a tsunami that knocked the earth off its axis and killed nearly a quarter of a million people. Then, on March 28, came another huge earthquake, this time farther south. There was no large tsunami generated by that temblor—dubbed the Nias quake after the island off the Sumatra coast that was worst affected—but over a thousand islanders died. After two such devastating blows, the inhabitants of Sumatra might be forgiven for assuming that nature will leave them in peace. It probably won't. Sieh, 54, and other scientists are warning that the island's troubles are not over. It isn't as though anybody needed a reminder, but the Oct. 8 earthquake that leveled large swathes of Pakistan and Northern India, leaving some 73,000 dead and millions homeless, could be a small taste of what is to come in Sumatra.

Even by Indonesia's chaotic standards, 2005 was a tough year. First came the gargantuan task of cleaning up and rebuilding after the tsunami—a job rendered more challenging by incompetence, bureaucracy and corruption. Then came the sudden eruption of bird flu that constantly threatened to explode into a major epidemic, and fresh bombings in Bali, which sent the country's tourism industry into a tailspin. But such problems would pale in the face of yet another monster earthquake striking Sumatra. That could kill hundreds of thousands of people. Such a quake, moreover, might trigger not just another tsunami but force a volcano to erupt, as happened with Mt. Talang, which was jolted out of an almost 40-year slumber by the Nias temblor.

How sure can we be that another catastrophe is coming? A combination of historical, geographical and geological research accumulated over some 12 years of painstaking field and laboratory work emphatically suggests that a section of the coast several hundred kilometers long, and populated by more than a million inhabitants, is threatened by the possibility of another shock. "There has never been a more certain geological prediction," Sieh declares. "There will be another gigantic earthquake and tsunami south of the equator off the west coast of Sumatra. It could be tomorrow or it could be in two decades from now, but there is no doubt that it will happen and that if the towns and villages along the coast aren't prepared, many, many people will die again."

Read more:

http://www.time.com/time/asia/2005/disaster/story2.html