PADANG EARTHQUAKE CONFERENCE CONFIRMS HIGH RISK OF NEW MEGA QUAKE

Declaration of Participants in the International Conference on the Sumatran Earthquake Challenge

Padang, West Sumatra, August 28, 2005

For the past three days an international group of earthquake scientists and engineers has met to discuss earthquake hazards in western Sumatra. They reported results from their studies of the recent earthquakes and tsunamis in North Sumatra and Aceh provinces as well as their studies of the earthquake hazards of West Sumatra. Specific recommendations for reducing earthquake and tsunami risks are being sent to governmental and other organizations.

Summary of Scientific Knowledge

It is clear from several investigations that the giant earthquakes of December 2004 and March 2005 were caused by sudden rupture of the Sumatran megathrust fault beneath the islands of Nias and Simeulue and west of mainland Aceh. Rupture of the megathrust caused the islands and surrounding seafloor to jump upward and toward the Indian ocean as much as ten meters. During the earthquakes, the west coast of Aceh and North Sumatra sank one half to one meter. Uplift of the seafloor caused the tsunamis that struck the coasts after the earthquake.

Similar earthquakes struck the Mentawai islands and the coasts of West Sumatra and Bengkulu province in 1797 and 1833. Uplift of the seafloor around the Mentawai islands during those earthquakes caused large tsunamis that struck the mainland coast. Estimates of tsunami heights, from historical reports and scientific calculations, range as high as ten meters. Preliminary calculations suggest that hundreds of thousands of people would be severely affected by a future giant earthquake and tsunami in West Sumatra and Bengkulu provinces.

No one is able to predict scientifically to the nearest day, week or even year when a great West Sumatran earthquake and tsunami will strike next. But the scientific evidence strongly suggests it will occur within the lifetimes of most young people living along the coast today -- such earthquakes occur about every two centuries and the last occurred 172 and 208 years ago. It is very unlikely that any valid prediction will be more specific than this, but we are hopeful that in the long term there will be improvements in forecasting the timing and nature of future large earthquakes. Scientific measurements show that strains now accumulating will culminate in the occurrence of a giant West Sumatran earthquake. During this future great earthquake, the Mentawai islands will behave like Nias and Simeulue did recently – they will rise suddenly a meter or more. The mainland coast of West Sumatra and Bengkulu province will experience the same sort of sinking as the west coasts of North Sumatra and Aceh – about one half to one meter. This will lead to substantial permanent coastal changes affecting infrastructure and, hence, peoples’ livelihoods.

What has already been done to prepare?

Specialists from Japan, Indonesia and the US reported that preparation for eventual earthquake and tsunami disasters can greatly reduce loss of life and property. Among useful activities are the evacuation simulations that have begun in Padang and distribution of educational materials to communities at risk from earthquake shaking and tsunami inundation. Infrastructural changes such as the adoption of better construction practices could ensure that bridges are still usable after severe shaking and tsunami inundation. Efforts to establish a tsunami early-warning system for coastal Indian-ocean communities are also underway through BMG.

Several scientists reported plans for research that will help understand better the nature of the earthquake and tsunami hazard to coastal communities in West Sumatra and Bengkulu provinces. Marine geologic and geophysical studies will lead to a bettere understanding of the undersea faults that produce big earthquakes. Studies of small earthquakes in the coming months and years will help to pin down that section of the megathrust that is currently locked and that will eventually break to produce big earthquakes. Better topographic maps of the coastal regions and better bathymetric maps of the seafloor will enable more reliable estimates of areas that will be flooded by future tsunamis. Studies of the evidence left by ancient earthquakes and tsunamis will also help in this regard. Such estimates will aid in long-term urban planning aimed at reducing loss of life, property and productivity.

Recommendations to Indonesian research institutions

It is imperative that Indonesian governmental agencies support the continuation and expansion of earthquake and tsunami research efforts. Moreover, we support the ongoing efforts of LIPI, BPPT, BMG, BRKP-DKP, ESDM, Bakosurtanal, ITB and other Indonesian universities to attract substantially greater funding from foreign sources to facilitate research on this challenge. Successful research efforts with other nations will help greatly in understanding Sumatra’s earthquake and tsunami challenge. We are particularly supportive of collaborations with foreign scientists and governments that include provisions for sustainable improvements in the Indonesian scientific community and infrastructure.

Far more reliable maps of potential tsunami inundation are essential to the people of West Sumatra and Bengkulu provinces. Better bathymetric and topographic maps and a better understanding of likely tsunami sources will be fundamental input to construction of these maps. Indonesian research institutions can play a critical role in accomplishing this goal.

It is essential that the efforts already begun by LIPI to provide educational materials to the citizens of West Sumatra be continued and expanded significantly. These materials have not yet reached many people in coastal West Sumatra and Bengkulu provinces. And many people who are still fearful of another great tsunami in North Sumatra and Aceh would benefit from better scientific information.

Currently, all eyes are focused on the potential for shaking and tsunami damage from future ruptures of the megathrust. Nonetheless, it is important that Sumatrans not neglect the risks posed by their other great fault, the Sumatran fault, which runs through the mountains, from Semanko Bay to Banda Aceh. For example, Banda Aceh will be more at risk from failure of that fault than from another earthquake and tsunami caused by the megathrust. In this particular case, what ground motions will likely result from rupture of this fault and what is the likelihood of their occurrence? Also, the specific location of the fault must be known so that new construction will not be placed across it.

Recommendations to governments and local organizations

The gradual, systematic reduction of potential loss of life, property and productivity should be a fundamental goal. This requires efforts in three areas: education, emergency response preparation and infrastructural change.

Education

Education is an extremely important avenue for the reduction of loss of life from tsunamis and earthquakes. For example, we commend ongoing local efforts in Padang and Air Bangis to establish procedures for the rapid and orderly evacuation of people from low-lying coastal regions after a great earthquake. We recommend that earthquake and tsunami education be incorporated into school curricula. These and other types of educational efforts must reach more of the at-risk populations and must be sustained over tens of years.

Emergency response preparedness

Access to regions affected by future large earthquakes and tsunamis will be critical to saving lives and property and re-establishing normalcy after the next great earthquake and tsunami. To ensure access, important bridges, roads, harbors and airports must be serviceable in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami. For example, efforts must be undertaken to ensure that bridges and their approach embankments will survive the earthquake and tsunami. Lessons learned from Aceh will be valuable in this regard. In the case of bridges, the use of shear keys to prevent lateral separation of bridges from their abutments. Roads farther inland are more likely to survive tsunami inundation. The airport authorities should have plans to ensure the viability of their facilities after disasters. For example, equipment should be available to immediately clear tsunami debris from runways. For the most critical harbor facilities, tsunami countermeasures should be implemented.

Emergency response plans should be developed, reviewed and exercised periodically prior to disasters, at all levels of organization. These plans should include such things as the practicalities of initial entrance into a tsunami-inundation zone. The existence of a tsunami early-warning system is intended to serve to inform local governments when it is safe to return to low-lying areas.

Infrastructural changes

Survival from large tsunamis and earthquakes will require a complex approach. Viability of water-supply pipelines and sewage systems is critical in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami. Therefore the vulnerability of water pipes both above- and below-ground needs special attention. For example, water pipes running along bridges should be adequately attached to structural members of the bridge. Also, adequate burial of underground pipes will ensure their survival.

Another activity should be the evaluation of the use of existing tall buildings as vertical evacuation structures. The use of pile-deck structures in hard-to-evacuate districts, as in Japan, should also be considered. Special attention should be paid to the construction of new mosques as vertical evacuation structures.

Floatable structures such as storage tanks and barges may need to have drift-prevention measures.

Establishment of evacuation routes and plans have already begun in Padang and Air Bangis. These efforts should continue to completion.

Precise pre-disaster surveys of property boundaries would help in post-disaster recovery.

Lessons learned from the recent great earthquakes and tsunamis regarding building codes and code enforcement should be implemented throughout the earthquake and tsunami prone regions of Sumatra. Additionally, since many buildings are built without formal compliance to building codes, better dissemination of earthquake- and tsunami-resistant building practices need to be promulgated. Many lessons from the Aceh disaster will be useful here.

MATTHEW FLINDERS GIRLS COIN RACE RAISES $1,300

One of the Nias schools supported by ELM - SMP Negeri 2 - Lahusa
Matthew Flinders support will help us continue our work

Dear Chris,
I'm a student at Matthew Flinders, Mr Barlow asked me, as multicultural captain, to send you a little report about what our coin race involved. He should be sending photos, hopefully.
Thankyou.
Andrea

The global and national response that the tsunami generated in support for affected areas was phenomenal, money poured out of pockets immediately, and yet it is unfortunate that more is needed. As a school we felt that our funds would be better directed towards a specific area; and that would be in assisting a school.

To get people actively involved in this fundraiser we put together a coin race, an event that had been successful in a previous year to raise money for East Timor. In their form groups the girls collected as much money as they could before the day of the race. The idea was that they would line up their coins and the class with the longest line would win. Incentive being of course that all money raised would be going to a more than worthy cause as the girls were eager to have a hand in helping out.

With entertainment provided over the lunchtime race by the school band Sweethearts the coins were lined up and the winning class was 8E with 53.26 metres. Altogether more than $1300 was raised. We thank the school for their generosity and hope that the money raised will help support the work that is being done by Electric Lamb in schools.

Andrea Warren
Multicultural Captain
Matthew Flinders Girls Secondary College Geelong.

ZACH SHIELDS ON-LINE DOCUMENTARY - FIELD REPORT

Four days after I arrived in Padang a trip to Nias Island was organized and a team of 5 volunteers set off for the Gomo District of the Island.

My goal was to conduct interviews with teachers, students, doctors and other citizens in the villages to find out what their primary concerns and needs are at the current time and for the future. Ali Nudin, a key member of ELM was vital for translation and helping to conduct interviews. We spent most of our time in central Gomo but also traveled to Siraha, Siphalago Soussoua and finally to Sirombu on the West Coast.

The primary concerns of most of the citizens we talked to is that help is becoming almost non-existent as time goes on and they are being left to fend for themselves unless small NGO’s like ELM can return to help. Hati, a high school teacher in Gomo, said “We were behind before the earthquakes but now we are even further behind and it will take a long time to get back to where we were as a community before.”


People in the villages within Gomo are scared and tired since the earthquakes. We got footage of a funeral for three victims of a landslide 4km from central Gomo. We also spoke to the father of a young burn victim in Siphalago Soussoua pleading for help because his daughter has no way to receive proper medical treatment. With this footage and much more I hope that it can serve as a gateway for people to become more aware of the problems these areas are facing and that it is not limited to the areas we visited but many more as well.

After we returned from Nias the team quickly organized a trip to the Mentawai Islands. This time we traveled with another Australian volunteer, Mike Frood, who along with Ali was key in helping to conduct interviews. Most of our work took place on Siberut where we visited Malilimoh, Torolagahgok, and Taileleu. These villages received far less damage then Nias but their greatest concern was their ability to protect against earthquakes and tsunamis in the future. The communication and healthcare nowhere near adequate for such a high-risk area and the villagers are aware of this.

We conducted interviews with the village heads and secretaries of each of the villages along with others including doctors and teachers in the area. Most of the interviews included stories of the fear people feel presently as the threat of another disaster looms. Some people in Malilimoh are still living in the mountains months later to protect themselves from a tsunami. We have footage of makeshift braces people have attached to their homes in case of another earthquake and distant shots of the shelters in the mountains.

This video will compliment the Nias trip so that people can see there are other areas West of Sumatra that are in need of better healthcare and better communication after the tsunami to protect from any further damage.

The online documentary is going well and my project partner Chris Podell is working in the US to give us a jump start to start the post-production phase. With the help of UVI and ELM the online documentary will be a relevant and ongoing project to help raise awareness of the affected regions of Sumatra.

A final trip to Simeulue is being organized and I will provide further information upon completion of the trip.

"DAILY PILOT" NEWS STORY ON UVI

Students mobilize more tsunami relief

College friends say they're determined to stay active in aid work when victims need them the most.

By Elia Powers, Daily Pilot

The news crews, civilian volunteers and aid workers have slowly departed from the devastated areas of Southeast Asia, where throngs of people continue to live without means after December's tsunami.

Michael Simonoff (in photo) and Phillip Bailey have returned from their trips, as well.

But the two college friends said they are determined to stay active in relief work at a time when disaster victims need them the most.

"There are so many people still without housing," said Simonoff, 21, a Costa Mesa High School graduate. "If there were a few hundred thousand people in the United States who were homeless after this kind of disaster, there would be more of an uproar."

Simonoff's discontent is overshadowed these days by his willingness to help steer a long-term relief project run by and for college students.

When the tsunami struck, Simonoff was at home in Southern California. Bailey, his friend from the University of Arizona, was vacationing in Florida with his two brothers.

"We got the feeling that this could have been our beach," Bailey said. "Our idea was to find a realistic way we could help the victims. I thought, there is no organization that helps students to volunteer."

That was the genesis of University Volunteers International, an organization comprising college students across the country and in Sweden.

Bailey, 20, a founding member, approached Simonoff and his friend, former Costa Mesa resident Alexander Stimson, in early January about heading overseas.

It took the group nearly two months to mobilize, but in early March, after setting up an independent study program through the University of Arizona, they left for Sumatra.

The students joined forces with the Electric Lamb Mission, an international volunteer group headed by former professional surfer Rick Cameron. The organization uses converted ferry boats to deliver aid to remote areas hit by the tsunami........ more

NIAS REPORT - ELM NURSERY STARTED

Report by Jenni Middleton and Patti Rock - (Arrived at Padang on July 17)

While waiting for our field mission, it was decided to work on a nursery. The clearing of an area at Jane and Rick’s property (the ELM office) had already commenced. After burning and tidying up the area, potting bags, soil and potting mix were purchased., and the filling of bags commenced.

A variety of suitable plants that will provide food and income for the people of Aceh were selected:-

• Petai (bean) seeds were collected, soaked for two days and planted
• Coklat (chocolate} seedlings were transplanted
• “Cherry” tree cuttings were taken and small seedlings also transplanted
• Avocado seeds planted

All of the above have taken very well with a 95% success rate.
Future plantings of bamboo and other fruit and vegetables are planned.
This is an ongoing project which will benefit many families.

We travelled to Nias (ELM base at Gomo District) where we gave away the aid we had to a small isolated village. People are all very friendly and happy, however, traumatized and very poor. Many families sleeping in tents and earthquake damaged buildings untouched - as though the quake was yesterday….

Aid distributed included - cooking utensils, torches, toys, toiletries, clothing, bedding, tarpaulins, coloured pencils, crayons and books.

With the donated monies we had it was recommended by the leader of the community Dr Aranifasa Laia that it would be more beneficial to sponsor a student through University - registration fees, accommodation and living expenses - than to purchase Aid for a few.

Yakin Kasih Telaumbanua was selected. He is one of four children who have lost their parents. He will be studying Teaching at Ikip Gunung Sitoli University and on completion will return to his village to support his family.

The donated monies covered his registration and university fees and approximately six months accommodation and living expenses. Extra sponsorship will be required to cover his five year course which we will follow up on our return.

By cleaning up the site around the volunteers camp we encouraged the children to dispose of rubbish correctly. This was a successful way of teaching general hygiene which they were keen to be part of.

On our return trip we stopped at the Lahusa School where we donated pens, pencils, rubbers, sharpeners, crayons, colored pencils and exercise books.

QUAKE WARNINGS DOWNGRADED - 13 QUAKES IN OUR AREA

Mr Deyo's warning for West Coast US has been downgraded.

There was a 4.6 magnitude quake off Oregon yesterday.

In the greater Indonesia/Nicobar/Papua area the warning period is now downgraded.
There were 13 quakes during the warning period in the 3 areas of concern that roughly can be described as West, Central and East Indonesia. None of the quakes exceeded 6.0 although 8 exceeded 5.0. None caused any damage. Clearly the warning was justified in this area.

2005/07/31 12:18 M 5.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

2005/07/31 12:37 M 5.1 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

2005/07/31 22:06 M 5.3 SULAWESI, INDONESIA

2005/08/01 13:17 M 4.9 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

2005/08/02 00:59 M 4.8 NORTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA

2005/08/02 03:51 M 4.9 MOLUCCA SEA

2005/08/02 08:39 M 5.6 SERAM, INDONESIA

2005/08/02 11:33 M 5.2 FLORES SEA

2005/08/02 17:38 M 4.6 SOUTHWEST OF SUMATRA, INDONESIA

2005/08/03 10:41 M 5.9 HALMAHERA, INDONESIA

2005/08/03 23:43 M 5.5 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION

2005/08/04 09:26 M 5.9 PAPUA, INDONESIA

2005/08/04 21:10 M 4.7 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

Clearly this was a period of intense seismic activity with quake frequency far greater than in the preceeding month. We will be monitoring Mr Deyo's web site maps.

3 QUAKES IN INDONESIAN TARGET AREAS SO FAR

Since Stan Deyo's warning yesterday, USGS have recorded 3 significant quakes in the three areas in Indonesia identified as being at high risk. None caused damage or tsunamis and all were less than magnitude 6.0

Region SULAWESI, INDONESIA Magnitude 5.3
Date-Time Sunday, July 31, 2005 at 22:06:53 (UTC)= Coordinated Universal Time
Monday, August 1, 2005 at 6:06:53 AM= local time at epicenter
Location 0.063°S, 123.750°E
Depth 95.8 km (59.5 miles) set by location program

Region WEST COAST SUMATRA Magnitude 4.9

Padang residents felt a substantial shake about 2017 last night. I was driving in the car and did not notice. Friends told me.... they were rather excited since they had just read the warning. The epicentre was just west of Nias.

Now this one:
A magnitude 5.9 earthquake IN BANDA SEA has occurred at:
4.01S 128.81E Depth 22km Tue Aug 2 08:39:54 2005 UTC

Time: Universal Time (UTC) Tue Aug 2 08:39:54 2005
Time Near Epicenter Tue Aug 2 17:39:54 2005

These 3 quakes can not yet be considered proof that Mr Deyo's predictions are ready for public consumption but this result adds credence to the theory that thermal anomolies are linked to seismic activity . Since the target areas suggested have recently been highly active, there is a correspondingly high likelyhood that a quake will occur in any one of them during an given 72 hr period. The chance of a quake occuring all three is, however, a lot lower.

The warning period extends for another 48 hrs. ELM has asked Mr Deyo to pay close attention to our operations area. ELM's Nias field team are returning to Padang tonight.

QUAKE WARNING US & SUMATRA WEST COASTS NEXT 72 HRS - RADICAL NEW SYSTEM PUT TO TEST

A quake warning has just come in from a researcher based in Colorado. Stan Deyo is first to admit that his method is new, un-proven and subject to data corruption from the Navy source charts. All the same, this is not a joke and a high proportion of recent quakes have shown up as thermal signatures several days before rupture. Stan says he is getting better at picking events before they happen but that local weather can cause false readings or obscure areas that are at high risk. Two areas worry Stan at this point. West Coast US (looks very large) and West Coast Sumatra (6-7 on the Richter scale). Time frame = 72 hrs

We have alerted friends and family in our vicinity to be especially careful until the thermal anomalies dissipate or clarify as seismic or weather related. PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS WARNING IS NOT CONDONED BY THE US GOVERNMENT OR NAVY.

MENTAWAI FIELD REPORT - JULY 2005

Electric Lamb Mission - Siberut Island Mentawai Sumatra
07-07-2005 13-07-2005
School Supplies
Joel & Vincent

Goal
This document reports about school stuff and sport equipment supply. The goal was to support around 300 pupils with school kits and sport equipments.

Location
The village of Taileleu was chosen during the trip according to the timing, the necessary introduction of mission members actions and schools accessibility. This village is located on the south of Siberut Island, Mentawai archipelago, part of Sumatra.

Purchase
School Material

Sports Equipment
Total budget
Rp 3,311,700

The formal announcement

Time was necessary to explain to the locals the mission and the actions.
This point is very important point to understand as it doesn’t fit with westerner way of thinking. Ali, Putra and Aju the Indonesian of the mission explained the aim of the team actions, medical check and school stuff supply. This took about one day, meaning that we were waiting on the boat.

As this type of action from the Electric Lamb foundation was the first in the Mentawai, one more day was previously spent at Tua Pejat Harbour to obtain the authorization of sailing in Mentawai area. The third day, we met the teachers of the three schools of Taileleu. Leny, the local Surf Aid representant help us in translation. Conversations permitted to define the number of pupils per level, to produce the school kit target and then to plan appointment for the deliveries.

In order to avoid corruption, we asked for a maximum of school representant for each delivery.
Initially, it was expected to give the kit to the pupils themselves but they were in holiday.

Schools description

Government Elementary school n 14 (sekolah dasar Negeri nomor 14)

Government Elementary school No 11 (sekolah dasar Negeri nomor 11)


KinderGarten (Taman Kanak-Kanak Filadelphia)

The School kits

Depending on school description and school stuff list, we worked together with the teachers to suggest kit versus pupil level.

Kinder garten
Stupplies per pupils
1 drawing book 1 buku gambar
1 school 1 buku tulis
2 black pencil 2 pensil
1 color pencil box 1 pensil warna
1 eraser 1 penghapus

Level 1 to 3
Stupplies per pupils
1 drawing book 1 buku gambar
1 school book 1 buku tulis
2 black pencil 2 pensil
2 black pen 2 pena
1 color pencil box 1 pensil warna
1 eraser 1 penghapus
1 sharpener 1 Peruncing

Level 4 to 6
Stupplies per pupils
2 school book 2 buku tulis
2 black pencil 2 pensil
2 black pen 2 pena
1 eraser 1 penghapus
1 sharpener 1 penghapus

The deliveries

Based on these kits suggested, we had to manage the losses and the extra. We supplied the following lists to the three schools the forth day after. We lost some school books during the transport from the boat Electric Lamb to the beach. Four packs of 10 books each were wet because of the salt water on the floor, one packs of 12 black pencils disappeared.

Initially, we planned to spend one hour in each schools. This timing was based in our “westerner reference”. One more time, time is different in Indonesia and the way to communicate also. We learned that it is very important to respect this. Never forget to apology even if you bring something.

By the way, a set of photocopy Booklets was given to teachers. These ones explained the risk liked to a futur tsunami or earthquake, and first emergency actions to do in case of.

List of supplies for Government Elementary school n 14
(sekolah dasar Negeri nr 14)

List of stuff supply for Government Elementary school n 11
(sekolah dasar Negeri nr 11)


List of stuff supply for Kinder Garten
(Taman Kanak-Kanak Filadelphia)

Tips for a similar mission

Before leaving
Prepared to the fact that time is necessary to be introduced in Mentawai (Indonesia in general) and then villages. This means that during the mission, some days will be spend on the boat waiting for authorization and Indonesian facilitator actions.

Try to define the number of villages, schools, pupils expected to be supplied, and take into account ;

• the previous observation
• the sailing conditions, impossible stay with sailboat due to rough sea in open bay to ocean (prepare workaround trip)…
• accessibility of schools : inland, road or track, transport opportunities and budget,…
• Don’t forget to inform the captain

When purchasing stuff (school, sport, …), take into account that some lost will happen between Padang and the schools. (….up to 5 %).

Bring long plastic cover and bags in order to protect or carry the school stuff in case of tropical rain.

During the trip
Before delivering stuff, following facilitator observations and actions, establish the contact with the teachers, head masters of the schools.

Discuss together about their needs, their means and then suggest or define school and sport kit versus pupils number.

If Pupils in holiday, ask for a maximum of teachers, directors, parents to be there for the delivery day. The goal is to avoid use of supplied stuff for private sale.

Define appointment with a lot of time between each school deliveries : transport conditions, photos, thanks and counting will spend time… .

During deliveries, don’t forget to take picture of school building and then delivered stuff with teachers team, parents, ... .
Ask for a receipt.

Suggestion of delivering schools of Malilimo (south Siberut island, Mentawai)
Even if this village is not an isolated one, it could be a good start for school supply in order to appreciate the way of delivering stuff. The bay in front of the village is really protected from rough sea and the access to the schools is quite easy from the beach (about 400 m, easy with a sidecar).

School description

KinderGarten (Taman Kanak-Kanak)

Government Elementary school n 04 (sekolah dasar Negeri nr 04)
2 volley ball fields

Extra action Ideas : Kite workshop in village or school for kids ;

With a really small budget, it’s possible to provide plastic coated rolls, reels of fishing line and scissorsin order to build kites. The frame of the kite will be done with light piece of wood.